Is Europe Ready for a G-Zero World? Geopolitical Risks, and Economic Uncertainty
In 2012, Ian Bremmer, an American political scientist and founder of the Eurasia Group, published a book explaining the power vacuum in international politics, where no single country or group of countries takes the lead. Ian Bremmer believes that this point has arrived in 2025. He argues that we are in a uniquely dangerous period in world history, similar to the 1930s and the early Cold War. Geopolitically Correct looks at the consequences for European countries and the implications for governments and businesses.
Here’s what you'll discover:
What Is the G-Zero World?
Are We Prepared for What's Next?
Multilateralism vs. G-Zero Realities
What Is the G-Zero World?
In his book “Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World”, Ian Bremmer defines the concept of G-Zero as a power vacuum in international politics. It exists because no country or group of countries has the political and economic clout to drive an international agenda or provide global public goods.
FOR GOVERNMENTS. The concept of a G-Zero world aligns with the fact that we are transitioning into a multipolar world. Unlike unipolarity, where one nation dominates, or bipolarity, where two superpowers share influence, a multipolar world is characterized by several centers of power. In theory, such a system could still have cooperative leadership among these poles. However, the G-Zero world concept, by Ian Bremmer, highlights more the transitional phase; where no nation or coalition has emerged to lead. The G-Zero phase makes international cooperation much more difficult. For European and Swiss governments, this fragmented world demands adaptability and foresight.
FOR BUSINESS. During the cold war companies operated in a bipolar world: the Western Bloc, led by the US, and the Eastern Bloc led by the USSR. This bipolarity provided some stability and for companies therefore predictability. After 1990, the world entered a unipolar moment, dominated by the US. Today, businesses face the challenges of a G-Zero world — an era without a single state driving global cooperation. Companies operate in a world where geopolitical tensions and power rivalries can disrupt markets and supply chains. With the new US administration, the unpredictable environment has increased. There could be trade wars between the US and China, making the business environment more challenging.
Are We Prepared for What's Next?
European nations find themselves in difficult geopolitical times, marked by the ongoing war in Ukraine and shifting dynamics in the transatlantic alliance. These challenges are compounded by the emergence of a G-Zero world, with the erosion of global leadership.
FOR GOVERNMENTS. The war in Ukraine, rising migration, and a pandemic-driven economic slowdown have strained European states resilience. In EU countries, we see political fragmentation at both ends of the political spectrum. This makes it much more difficult for the EU to find a consensus on EU level. In such a G-Zero world with no clear leader, the concept of a ‘‘coalition of the willing’’ can be a way out of stagnation. In a world with changing alliances and not one or two, but several poles, smaller countries like Switzerland could benefit from their neutral status. But they must also avoid international isolation as a result of a strictly neutral stance.
FOR BUSINESS. In a G-Zero world, companies must be prepared for a more uncertain business environment. Supply chains could become more complicated by different regulations as countries agree less on internationally set standards. As conflicts or trade wars increase, companies may also be more vulnerable to sanctions and/or retaliation. Companies operating internationally should consider how best to manage these geopolitical risk. Investing more in political risk analysis could be a viable strategy.
Multilateralism vs. G-Zero Realities
The end of the Cold War and the acceleration of the globalisation of economic activities have increased the need for cooperation between states.
FOR GOVERNMENTS. The post-Cold War multilateralism was reflected at the Munich Summit in July 1992, where states adopted the political declaration ‘‘Shaping the New Partnership’’, which replaced the East-West confrontation and bridged the North-South difference. Since then, globalisation and interdependence have deepened. The interconnected world needed these cooperative efforts we experienced during the last decades. Today, however, the cooperative spirit is giving way to fragmentation. Across Western democracies, voters have increasingly supported parties critical of multilateralism — as evidenced by the election of Donald Trump in the US and the rise of Eurosceptic politicians in Austria, Germany and Croatia. While this reflects legitimate concerns about national sovereignty and the failures of unchecked globalisation, it also threatens the cohesion of institutions such as the European Union.
FOR BUSINESS. While the EU has expanded and cooperation has grown in the past, this will decline in the coming years and the trends can already be seen in the current crisis of leadership in many countries and lack of international cooperation. This is partly due to the structural nature of the G-Zero world with the absence of a clear leading pole. Companies need to be aware of the increased risks from geopolitical tensions, given the potential decline in global cooperation. As the recent hybrid warfare attacks in the Baltic Sea show, supply chains can suddenly be at risk in unexpected regions. Companies also face risks from the threat of tariffs (such as those that may come from the Trump-Administration), or from US protectionism and its consequences.
Weekly Thought Provoker
Last week, Geopolitically Correct asked readers about the biggest impact of the end of Ukraine’s gas transit deal. 67% pointed to higher energy costs for Europe. While valid, the EU’s recent energy diversification has softened the blow.
This week, we're asking: How should Europe position itself in a G-Zero world? Give your vote and share your thoughts below:
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In Review
On January 1, 2025 the gas transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia ended, which means that Russian gas stopped flowing to Europe via Ukraine. This gas route has been operated for five decades. Geopolitically Correct looks at the consequences for European countries and the implications for governments and businesses.
Here’s what you'll discover:
What Does This Mean for Ukraine and Russia?
How Dependent Is the EU on Russian Oil and Gas?
Energy as a Weapon: Lessons from Europe’s Past